Real Estate Data & Market Trends
December, 2010

Active Listings: 38,982; Equity Sellers, 19, 637 (50%) Short Sales, 11,740 (30%); REO, 7605 (20%

AWC/Pendings: 16, 418; Equity Sales, 3,142; Short Sales, 8,504; REO 4,772
Sold 11/6-12/6, 6,513, a decline of 18% year-over-year; 85.5% < $250,000

Equity Sales, 35.5%; Short Sales, 1,330 (20.5%); REO, 2,847 (44%);
% of distressed sales unchanged year-over-year.

Trustee sale Notices (N.O.D.) for November = 5,891, lowest since 3/2008; Trustee Sales, 2,694, lowest since 3/2008; say “B of A moratorium.”

R.L.Brown Market Analysis: New Home marketplace:

3rd quarter new home closings down 20% @ 1,654 (551 p/month) from 3’’ quarter ‘09; Compare with 14, 200 (4,733 p/month) new home closings 3’ quarter ‘05.

Currently, new home sales constitute 8% of all sales;
New home sales are typically 35% of market.
63,500 new home starts in 2005 vs 6,120 YTD 2010.
THE GOOD NEWS: very low spec home inventory, so builders will start building more homes.
Lot inventory: SW, 18,300; MesalGilbert, 9,500; Scottsdale, 2,800; Tempe/Chandler, 2,500.

R.L. Brown Market Projections:

New home permits: 2010, 7,100; 2011, 8,500; 2012, 13,000; 2013, 22,000; 2014, 28,000;
2015, 33,000; 2016, 42,000. Seems that R.L. is optimistic about home builders returning to good health.

Re-sale homes data & projections: Resale units, 2009, 93,560; 2010, 93,000; 2011, 93,000;
2012, 85,000; 2013, 75,000; 2014, 78,000; 2015, 85,000.
These projections are based on
1) a decrease in the distressed property inventory moving forward;
2) a decrease in the unemployment rate to the range of 3-5%;
3) new homes sales re-capturing 25-30% market share.
Re-sale median price projection: 2010, 119,000; 2011, 117,000; 2012, 118,000; 2013, 120,000; 2014, 125,000; 2015, 125,000.

Currently the gap between the medwn price of new homes sales and re-sales is $100,000;
R.L. rightly believes that this gap must narrow moving forward.