Real Estate Data & Market Trends Report October, 2010

'Prepared by Jeff Lucas


Active: 39,416, an increase of 3,000+ over past 60 days;

 

Overall Inventory Supply is at 5.9 months; Inventory supply is on the rise

 

AWCl Pending: 16,217, down sharply from a high of 22,000+;

Equity Seller, 23%; Short Sales, 53%; REO 24%


Closed Sales, 9/12-10/12/20l0: 6,683 vs 7,694, 9/12-10/1212009, a 13% decline year-over-year. Equity Sales, 35%; Short Sales, 22%; REO, 43%;

Short Sales have declined 4% and REO s=ales have increased 5% over last 60 days.

Impact of Distressed sales in the Luxury Home Market

Scottsdale & Paradise Valley, Closed Sales 7/1-9/30/20l0


                                         % Distr/lO            %Distr/09        mos/Inventory

3,000,000+                            25%                      7%                         51 

2-3, 000,000                          19%                     16%                        28.3

1-2,000,000                           38%                      31%                       19

500-1,000,000                       43%                      40%                        11.6


Compelling Opportunity for Buyers

(From a recent blog by my partner, Randy Goff)


In 2006, single story homes in the East Valley were selling in the range of $200 p/sqft and interest rates were generally in the range of 6.5%

In 2006, a 2000 sqft single story home sold in the range of $400,000. A buyer with 10% down payment would have a monthly P & I payment of $2275 p/mo on a $360,000, 30 year loan.

Since the market peak in 2006, most of these homes have lost 50% of their value.

So today the 2000 sqft single story home would sell in the range of $200,000 and interest rates

are in the range of 4.375%.

A buyer with 10% down payment would have a monthly P & I payment of $899. on a $180,000

30 year loan, a savings of $1376 p/month; $16,512 savings p/year; and $162, 512 over a ten

year period.